Mid-2018 Crozet Real Estate Market Update

With Greg Slater and Jim Duncan with Nest Realty.


Transcription follows

Jim: 00:08 Hey, I’m Jim Duncan with Nest Realty.

Greg: 00:10 I’m Greg Slater with Nest Realty. We wanted to take this opportunity to talk a little bit more about the Crozet market, specifically. When we define the Crozet market, we’re talking about the Brownsville and Crozet Elementary School districts.

Greg: 00:24 The reason we do that is, is because we see a lot of reports out there that talk about Albemarle County as a whole, city of Charlottesville, as a whole. As Crozet residents and agents that do a lot of business out here, we like to look at the community of Crozet itself.

Jim: 00:38 In the last six months, it’s interesting when you look at it. In the first half of 2018, from January 1st to the end of June, in 2018, 143 homes sold throughout Crozet and Brownsville Elementary districts. In 2017, it was 159; and 2016, it was 140. We’re down a little bit versus what we’ve seen in the last few years.

Jim: 01:01 Median sales price actually, you start digging into those numbers. In 2018, so far this year, the average sale price has been $474,000. Of those sold, 37 are new, and the average sale price of new construction was $584,000. For 2017, that number was … The average sales price was 456,000, and the number of new was 56.

Jim: 01:27 So far this year, we’re seeing a little bit fewer new construction sales, and the average sale price of a new last year was 593. So, on par, if you will, for year over year.

Jim: 01:38 The neighbors have been selling them with the most volume in Crozet are going to be Old Trail, the large neighbor we have, but then the W’s, Waylands Grant, Western Ridge, Westlake, Wickham, and Highlands, which kills the W.

Greg: 01:52 Looking at the sold data is looking at transactions that happened several months ago and that have already closed. One of the things I like to do is look at the contract. It’s a little more current and can help us understand what’s going on between resale and new, because new construction contacts stay off the market longer. They take longer to close, because the home needs to be built.

Greg: 02:15 If we’re looking at the contracts year over year for the first half of the year, Crozet saw a slight decrease of about four percent. If we break that out to new and resale, what we’ll see is the resales were off about 11% while the new construction was only off about 6%.

Greg: 02:34 If we look at those sales as a percentage of new versus resale, those new contracts accounted for 39% of the activity of Crozet.

Jim: 02:44 On that real quick, you’re looking at the number of contracts, or homes under contract right now in Crozet. July 18th, there are 90 homes under contract right now in Crozet. 69 of those are new construction, which I thought was a fairly staggering number when you look at the number of contacts going forward.

Greg: 03:01 If you unpack that a little bit, it’s because those homes have to be built, right? A lot of the people that bought in the spring resale are closing now; a lot of those people are waiting for their homes to be finished and be closing in another month or two.

Greg: 03:12 We saw the contracts have been going down a little bit, but at the same time, what we’ve seen is there’s been an increase in resale listings this year, year over year, of about nine percent. When you put those two things together, I think you’ll find the agent that’s familiar with Crozet feeling like there’s a little more inventory this time of year than we’re used to having. Whether or not that’s the right inventory, or it’s priced right, or those homes are in good condition is a different conversation, but there are a few more homes on the market not quite selling at the pace some of us have expected because of that.

Jim: 03:46 I think that some of that is driven in part because the last few years we have not had significant inventory. So as things came on the market the early part of the year, buyers jumped on it. We started to see a lot of sellers, we’ve seen the buyers jumped, and they’re choosing to put their homes on the market in the vacuum of having a significant life event.

Greg: 04:05 If you remember, we had a conversation at Nest Realty among ourselves in January or February, where one of our colleagues actually asked is this the spring market now? Things were going well, or better than we thought they should feel like for that time of year, and it’s exactly what Jim said. We came into the year with buyers concerned the home they wanted wasn’t going to come on the market, or that interest rates were going to increase. The numbers we heard were five percent. We haven’t got there yet. We’ve hovering around four and five-eighths, but there’s been some upward pressure on interest rates.

Jim: 04:37 I mean, just anecdotally, I’ve probably had four or five transactions this year that have closed for buyers with whom I’ve been working for four or five years. Every year would come on, they’d look, and they wouldn’t find the right inventory. So this was the year for a lot of people, that they finally found that house.

Greg: 04:53 This time of year, I would say seasonally, we talk about pricing and pressure year over year, but there’s some seasonality to pricing. When the urgency is in the market and the buyers that show up early really need to buy a home that year, right now, a lot of the activity that we’re getting back to is what I call elective, you call discretionary, it’s if I find the right home that would make me move, I would consider selling my house.

Greg: 05:18 I have conversations every day with people considering a lifestyle move but aren’t necessarily have some real life event that’s causing it. Right now, we’re seeing a premium for new construction that’s stretched a little further than it normally has been in comparison to resales. Most buyers aren’t running straight to new construction unless there’s a new community or a new opportunity that just didn’t exist in the market.

Jim: 05:45 I think it’s interesting, a lot of the homes that are in the established neighborhoods in Crozet, some of those need some updating, and you’re looking at 10 to $30,000 of updates that are required, and some buyers are choosing to spend that 70,000, $80,000 premium and they’ll go to new construction instead.

Greg: 06:02 That’s right.

Jim: 06:03 So looking forward to the last part of 2018, what are you looking at?

Greg: 06:08 I’m watching new construction in some new communities that are going to hit in this market. I don’t think you can drive through Crozet and not notice the dirt being moved. There’s a new community coming with single family detached homes on larger lots. That’s in demand, and it should come in at price points that should cause some activity. When we talk about the percentage of sales going to new as a home seller, it’s easy to compare to the other resales that sold, but sometimes it’s hard to understand what the builders are doing and how they’re taking buyers off the street before they even get a chance to consider your home.

Jim: 06:47 I think from a resale perspective, you need to be cognizant of the fact that new construction is your competition.

Greg: 06:51 There’s no question.

Jim: 06:53 Being aware of the pricing and how you’re situated is critical. My answer with almost everyone of my clients, buyer or seller, is it depends. Every situation is very, very dependent on what your life choices are and what the neighborhood is, etc.

Jim: 07:08 Some of these new communities that we’re looking at, the apartments that are coming, it’s right back there, The View, 125, 126 apartments there. Some in Old Trail, going to bring other 150 apartments, something like that. So it’s going to be interesting to see what impact that has on the market, as well. We got Rocket Coffee out on 240. We’ve got [inaudible 00:07:29], which is kinda nice. They have a discount for cyclists, also. University Tire is coming to the corner, and you have the Brewing Tree. It’s a little bit further out, but they still have good beer.

Jim: 07:38 This is the time of year where I start to have a lot of conversations with sellers for next year, and they’re starting to get ready for 2019.

Greg: 07:45 Absolutely. We’re always looking ahead and have to think a little long term, because honestly, if you’re competing with new construction, you really have to think about the maintenance of your home and the condition of it, or whether or not there are improvements that will better position you for sale when the time comes.

Jim: 08:00 Right. So if you have any questions about anything we’ve said or about the Crozet market, I’m Jim Duncan with Nest Realty.

Greg: 08:06 I’m Greg Slater with Nest Realty. We’d be happy to have a conversation with you.

Starting 2018 in the Crozet Real Estate Market

We went for a shorter, tighter segment this time. What do you think?

Questions? Ask David or Jim.

Read all of the real estate posts on RealCrozetVA.

Transcription is in the works; I’ll update this post then.

Legal Disclosure: David and I are real estate agents with Nest Realty in Charlottesville.

Quick data points from our notes

* 150M vs 129M
* 313 vs 282 up 11%
* New construction – 113 vs 90 – up 26%
* Resale market – pretty flat 200 sold in 2017 w/ 61 DOM vs 192 in 2016 with 57 DOM
* 55 sales over 1 acre vs 52 – people want small yards
* 21 land sales
* 5 distressed

Tight inventory continues
New construction continues to do extremely well.

In Old Trail, in 2016 87 sold, and 2017, 80 sold

Fun Fact – 55 new construction sales in Old Trail both years

Fun Fact – Trails mentioned 5 times in 2007, 35 in 2016 and 40 times in 2017

December 2017 – 29 ratified contracts in 2017 vs 17 in 2016.





Crozet Real Estate Market – Starting 2018

Jim: Hey there. Jim Duncan with Nest Realty.

David: David Farrell with Nest Realty, sitting here at Nest West.

Jim: Do a little bit of Crozet real estate. Looking back at 2017, Crozet had 115 million dollars of real estate sales, versus 129 million in the previous year.

David: It was a heck of a year, Jim. We had 313 sales. That was up 11% from last year — the most ever in Crozet. Remember we’re defining Crozet by the Brownsville —

Jim: And Crozet Elementary.

David: — and Crozet Elementary school district.

Jim: New construction?

David: Was also up. 113 new homes build in Crozet last year, up from 90 the year before in 2016, so that a 26% increase, new home constructions.

Jim: Heck of a year for new.

Resale, actually, was kind of flat. I think, driven by the new construction taking it. 200 sold in 2017 with 61 days on the market, and 192 sold in 2016 with about the same, 57 days on the market.

David: Still impressive though.

We had 55 sales on an acre or more. Those are typically a couple of the older subdivisions in town, but mostly properties outside of the area.

Jim: Right.

David: There were 21 land sales overall for the year, which is the same as in 2016\. The good news is, we only had five distressed sales over the whole year — short sale, foreclosures — there were 7 in 2016\. So we’re thrilled to see that.

Jim: That’s a great thing.

David: Good to see that figure drop.

Jim: Looking forward to 2018\. We’re going to have continued tight inventory. It’s going to be hard to buy a house for a lot of people. New construction is going to continue to kill it, I think.

David: Yes.

Jim: — but for those looking for stuff under 500 in Crozet…

David: It’s getting hard.

Jim: It’s going to be hard, getting harder.

David: Attached home in Old Trail or lock into a resale.

Jim: Yes.

Old Trail, 2016, 87 sold, and 2017, fewer — 80 sold.

David: I thought it was extremely interesting in Old Trail that 55 new construction sold in 2017; the exact same as in 2016\. So even though we see dirt flying over there constantly, the build-out rate seems to be around 55 — between 50 and 60…

Jim: Which is good. A good stable rate of new construction.

My fun fact for this one is that in 2007 in the MLS, trails were mentioned as a selling point five times; 2016, 35 times, and last year, 2017, 40 times. So huge kudos to the Crozet Trails crew for all that they do.

David: Great growing trail system.

Jim: Yes.

And, busy, busy December. In Brownsville and Crozet there were 29 ratified contracts in 2017, only 17 in 2016.

David: Pretty impressive.

Jim: Very.

David: Busy drinking beer around here also?

Jim: Oh, there’s lots of places to drink beer.

David: Third Thursday of the month, we’re going to be up at the Roof Top, so that’s Thursday, January 18th; we’ll be up there from 5 to 7 if you want to come talk about real estate. If you have any questions about heading into 2018, just stop by and have a beer, and we’ll be happy to chat with you.

Jim: If you’re thinking about selling your house, I think now is the time to start having the conversation about getting ready for the spring market, because it is really and truly right around the corner.

David: I’ve got listings coming on this week. I bet you do also?

Jim: Same too.

David: OK. I’m David Farrell of Nest Realty.

Jim: Jim Duncan of Nest Realty.

David: Good luck with your real estate in 2018.

Crozet Real Estate Market Update – Spring 2017

David Ferrall and Jim Duncan met at the Rooftop and talked about the Crozet real estate market in Spring 2017 – resale homes, new construction, price per square foot, and a fair bit more.

But the conversation is never about just real estate data … we also talked about the Rooftop, Nest West, Great Valu improvements, Piedmont Place, PRN’s containers, Crozet Trails and connectivity, and generally about how Crozet is truly a great place to live.


All in under 6 minutes! Questions about the market? Ask us, or stop by PRN on the Third Thursday of the month from 5pm to 7pm.


Crozet Real Estate Insight – ending 2016 and starting 2017

Speaking of the Crozet real estate market … David Ferrall and Jim Duncan met at PRN last week and talked about the Crozet real estate market in 2016, and speculated a bit about the 2017 market.

But the conversation is never about just real estate … we also talked about businesses that have opened in Crozet (Smoked Kitchen & Tapnée Smoked BBQ, Morsel Compass, Blue Ridge Bottleshop in Piedmont Place), changes (Southern Way moved from its spot across from Starr Hill to the old Three Notch’d Grill building, Great Valu changed hands), our favorite charities, and of course, our love for Pro Re Nata brewery.

All in under 6 minutes! Questions about the market? Ask us, or stop by PRN on 19 January at 5pm.


Crozet Real Estate Conversation – Moving to PRN

We’ve been doing our Crozet Real Estate Conversations at the Mudhouse for the past few months, and have done our market update videos at several Crozet businesses. We’re shaking things up this month and for the forthcoming months … Thirsty (real estate) Thursdays.

The Third Thursday of the month from 5:30 to 7:30, David Ferrall and I will be at Pro Re Nata to talk about the Crozet (or Charlottesville/Albemarle/Nelson) real estate markets. PRN have Wi-Fi, so we’ll probably be running some real estate statistics, too, because that’s one of the things we do for fun (really).

Have questions about the Crozet real estate market? Stop by PRN Thursday, 16 June from 5:30 to 7:30.

Crozet Real Estate Conversation - at PRN with David Ferrall and Jim Duncan with Nest Realty

Crozet Real Estate Conversation – 1st Quarter 2016

We love doing these. Not only do we love real estate market analysis & data, but having the opportunity to shoot at Crozet businesses is a big bonus!

We’ve done these at the Crozet Mudhouse, Greenhouse Coffee, Crozet Library, and this month at Pro Re Nata (PRN).

The Crozet Real Estate Conversation with David Ferrall and Jim Duncan with Nest Realty.

We look at the 1st Quarter 2016 real estate market report – land sales, new construction contracts, total sales in Brownsville & Crozet Elementary School Districts.

Have questions about the market? Call or email us anytime. Or stop by the Crozet Mudhouse from 9am – 11am on the 2nd & 4th Wednesdays of every month!